讲座题目：The Thin Blue Line: Humanity’s fragile safety cordon in the face of rising sea levels
报告人：Bruce C. Glavovic 教授
主持人：刘敏 教授
时间：2017年10月18日 14:00
地点：闵行校区资环楼271会议室
主办单位：地理科学学院、地理信息科学教育部重点实验室
报告摘要：
Sea levels are rising. It is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise for many centuries beyond 2100. Notwithstanding significant deviations of local and regional sea level change from global mean change, low-lying coastal communities, cities and nations will experience devastating impacts, including submergence, coastal flooding and erosion, and salt-water intrusion. Continued coastal population growth and development intensification will compound coastal hazard risk and exposure to adverse impacts in this century and beyond. With nearly half the global population and development already concentrated at the coast, the choices we make now profoundly shape the safety and livelihood prospects of current and future generations. The coast – where the land meets the ocean – is a ‘vulnerable interface.’ It is also a fragile safety cordon; a ‘thin blue line’ that protects society against a range of coastal hazards – and the ravages and chaos that will ensue with relentless sea-level rise. The thin blue line is a metaphor that symbolizes the role that police officers play in protecting society from evil and chaos. The coast similarly stands as a thin blue line that can protect coastal communities from the destructive impacts of extreme events and sea-level rise. Prevailing patterns of coastal development are, however, increasing exposure and vulnerability to these impacts. How might the potential of the coast as humanity’s safety cordon be realized? This paper describes vulnerability to sea-level rise. It explains how the coast functions as humanity’s safety cordon in the Anthropocene. Notwithstanding the dismal prospects that humanity faces if business as usual persists, there is cause for hope. Coastal cities play a pivotal role as ‘sentinels’ along the thin blue line; as indicators of coastal vulnerability and as guards who stand watch to protect society against harm. Some low-lying coastal communities, cities and nations are charting pathways that promise to enhance their long-term security and well-being. This paper synthesizes lessons from these endeavours – these ‘bright spots’ – and outlines strategic imperatives to build coastal adaptive capacity, resilience and sustainability.
报告人简介：
Bruce C. Glavovic
Earthquake Commission Chair in Resilience and Natural Hazards Planning, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
Earthquake Commission Chair in Resilience and Natural Hazards Planning, Massey University;
Co-Chair of the Scientific Steering Committee of Future Earth Coasts
b.glavovic@massey.ac.nz
Bruce is the Earthquake Commission Chair in Resilience and Natural Hazards Planning at Massey University, New Zealand, where he has been based since 2002. He has degrees in economics and agricultural economics, environmental science, and urban and environmental planning. He has worked for over 30 years in academia, environmental consulting and Government, mainly in New Zealand, South Africa and the USA. From 1996-2001, he was a founding partner of a consulting firm that undertook a variety of large-scale, complex environmental planning projects in southern Africa. He was the Project Manager of the team that designed and facilitated South Africa's coastal policy formulation process, which culminated in the Government’s White Paper for Sustainable Coastal Development and the world’s first Integrated Coastal Management Act. In addition, he serves as co-chair of future earth coasts.