讲座题目：Human Water Management Intensifies Hydrological Drought in California
主讲人：何小刚
主持人：刘敏
开始时间：2017-06-28 10:50:00
讲座地址：闵行校区地理科学学院（资环楼）354室
主办单位：地理科学学院
报告人简介：
何小刚，清华大学水利工程本科（2008-2011）、日本东京大学水利工程硕士（2011-2013），现为美国普林斯顿大学土木与环境工程系硕士（2014-2016）、在读博士生（2017年至今）。曾获28届全国挑战杯第三名（2010），清华大学本科优秀论文（2011），日本Monbukagakusho 奖学金（2011-2013），日本Nishino Akiyo 奖（2012），普林斯顿大学奖学金（2014）。求学期间曾在斯坦福大学、东京大学、Oklahoma大学、IIASA等国际知名学术机构担任研究助理。
主要从事水资源过程的数值模拟研究，侧重于降水、建坝等过程的耦合模型建立及其流域水文、地质灾害影响评估。以第一作者在GRL、WRR、J. Hydrology等上发表论文多篇，总SCI论文近10篇。
报告摘要：
Contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of hydrological drought over California is investigated using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model at 0.5 resolution for the period 1979-2014. We demonstrate that including water management in the modeling framework results in more accurate discharge representation. During the severe 2014 drought, water management alleviated the drought deficit by ∼50% in Southern California through reservoir operation during low flow periods. However, human water consumption (mostly irrigation) in the Central Valley increased drought duration and deficit by 50% and 50-100%, respectively. Return level analysis indicates that there is more than 50% chance that the probability of occurrence of an extreme 2014-magnitude drought event was at least doubled under the influence of human activities compared to natural variability. This impact is most significant over the San Joaquin Drainage basin with a 50% and 75% likelihood that the return period is more than 3.5 and 1.5 times larger, respectively, because of the human impact on drought. A detailed study of the relative attribution of different types of human activities (e.g., groundwater pumping, reservoir operation and irrigation) on changes in drought risk over California is conducted through a higher 10 km resolution simulation. This hydrological modeling, attribution, and risk assessment framework is further extended to other drought-prone areas and major drought events in the contiguous U.S., including the 2006/2007 Southeastern U.S. drought, the 2011 Texas-northern Mexico drought over the southern plains and the 2012 drought over the central Great Plains.
编辑 | 张景妤