地点：271会议室
报告题目：China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate
报告人简介：
袁潇晨，北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院讲师，兼任北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心研究员，主要研究方向为气候风险管理、能源-环境-经济系统建模。已在Climatic change、Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change和Water Resources Management等国际和国内期刊发表多篇学术论文。
报告摘要：
China has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This study investigates China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes.